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USING MULTIVARIATE STATISTICS TO SOLVE RISK ASSESSMENT PROBLEMS FOR FOREST ECOSYSTEMS
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O. Taseiko;U. Ivanova;E. Rihter;A. Pitt
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1314-2704
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English
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20
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3.1
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Different natural and man-made hazards lead to the loss of millions of hectares of forest every year; sustainable forest management, which will decrease or prevent loss, is vitally important for our planet?s health. Sustainable forest management in the Russian Federation implies the effective multi-purpose use of forest resources, which involves implementing preventive and reforestation measures. However, the forest extends over vast territories, which complicates the work of determining the state of the system as a whole and, specifically, for individual areas. To best manage forest ecosystems, we should use a risk-based approach to correctly evaluate many factors and their influence probability, but the necessary methodology is currently lacking. This work uses multidimensional statistics methods that allow us to divide Krasnoyarsk Territory into groups of clusters with similar characteristics. For each region within this Territory, the risk of permissible impacts is calculated according to the proposed formula, and interval groups of risks are determined for cluster groups. The proposed method allows us to determine the intervals of risk values for each group of clusters. For a more detailed study of each cluster, it is necessary to expand and clarify the list of factors considered, as well as determine the most significant indicators that affect the forest ecosystem. Risk assessment was carried out according to two indicators: forest fires and forest pathology; however, this formula can be modified to take into account the introduction of new variables, for example, anthropogenic impact (deforestation area) or climate change.
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conference
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20th International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference SGEM 2020
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20th International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference SGEM 2020, 18 - 24 August, 2020
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Proceedings Paper
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STEF92 Technology
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International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference-SGEM
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SWS Scholarly Society; Acad Sci Czech Republ; Latvian Acad Sci; Polish Acad Sci; Russian Acad Sci; Serbian Acad Sci & Arts; Natl Acad Sci Ukraine; Natl Acad Sci Armenia; Sci Council Japan; European Acad Sci, Arts & Letters; Acad Fine Arts Zagreb Croatia; C
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777-784
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18 - 24 August, 2020
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website
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cdrom
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7195
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social-natural-technogenic system; risk assessment; forest ecosystem
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