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Title: CLASSIFICATION PRINCIPLES OF NATURAL AND TECHNOGENIC RISKS ESTIMATION IN NATURE MANAGEMENT FOR ARCTIC COASTAL ECO-SOCIO-ECONOMIC SYSTEMS
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CLASSIFICATION PRINCIPLES OF NATURAL AND TECHNOGENIC RISKS ESTIMATION IN NATURE MANAGEMENT FOR ARCTIC COASTAL ECO-SOCIO-ECONOMIC SYSTEMS
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1314-2704
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English
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21
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7.2
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• Prof. DSc. Oleksandr Trofymchuk, UKRAINE
• Prof. Dr. hab. oec. Baiba Rivza, LATVIA |
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In the context of global climate change and the increasing anthropogenic impact due to the process of intensiveness of nature management in the Arctic coastal eco-socio-economic systems, there is an increase in the production of risks of natural and anthropogenic origin. The purpose of the paper is to substantiate and develop a classification system of risks of Arctic coastal nature management, sources and factors of their production as well as possible relationships between structural elements, which makes it possible to use system analysis in the construction of risk models. The proposed system takes into account features specifications to the Arctic region, related to the intensification of nature management, complex hierarchical structures of Arctic coastal nature management, the presence of unique natural and anthropogenic risks, as well as the significant role of the risk of cascade disasters and disasters of hierarchical systems. The paper presents the definition of risk with the step-by-step system of structuring (risk-source, risk-factor, risk-object) as a process of causing harm, which has the probability of implementation. This approach makes it possible to use a scenario approach in modeling the risks of cascading disasters. Classification features and specific forms of risk structural elements are shown, and an expert assessment of their relationships in the risk-source – risk-factor and risk-factor – risk-object matrices in the form of a matrix analysis of the risks of Arctic nature management. The obtained results make it possible to identify the key elements of risk implementation for various scenarios of Arctic coastal nature management, including the risks of cascade disasters in the tasks of ensuring the safety of nature management. Further research will be aimed at developing tools for implementing environmental risk management measures in order to promote the effectiveness of territorial planning processes and the sustainability of Arctic coastal eco-socio-economic systems.
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conference
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21st International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference SGEM 2021
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21st International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference SGEM 2021, 16 - 22 August, 2021
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Proceedings Paper
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STEF92 Technology
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SGEM International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference
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SWS Scholarly Society; Acad Sci Czech Republ; Latvian Acad Sci; Polish Acad Sci; Serbian Acad Sci & Arts; Natl Acad Sci Ukraine; Natl Acad Sci Armenia; Sci Council Japan; European Acad Sci, Arts & Letters; Acad Fine Arts Zagreb Croatia; Croatian Acad Sci
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91-98
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16 - 22 August, 2021
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website
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cdrom
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8113
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nature management risks; coastal eco-socio-economic system; Arctic; matrix of risk structural elements
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